FSF – Automated Betting Predictions

Liverpool

There has been some immense pressure building on Brendan Rodgers as the Liverpool manager, but he has said he felt some positives despite the 3-0 defeat at Manchester United last weekend. Those positives manifested themselves to a 1-3 win at Bournemouth in the League Cup Quarter Final on Wednesday, although Rodgers would have preferred seeing any team other than Chelsea in the Semi Final draw.

That Semi Final tie will be played over two weeks in January so Liverpool will look to close the gap on the top four in the Premier League over this festive period. The Reds are currently down in 11th place in the Premier League table and they are 7 points behind West Ham United in the final Champions League place. Liverpool will definitely need to improve at Anfield where they have a 3-3-2 record and have scored 7 goals and conceded 6 so far. Only Aston Villa (6) have scored fewer home goals than Liverpool this season, a far cry from last season.

Liverpool have only lost 1 of their last 7 games in all competitions and even that loss at Old Trafford could have been different if they had shown some composure in front of goal. They have also lost just 1 of their last 6 home games in all competitions, but the worry for Liverpool has been the fact they have only won 2 of those games although the win at Bournemouth should have restored some confidence.

Glen Johnson, Jon Flanaghan and Daniel Sturridge are all expected to be absent until the turn of the year. Mario Balotelli could be fit enough to earn a place in the squad despite missing the win at Bournemouth during the week, but Dejan Lovren picked up a knock during that game and may miss out.

Arsenal

Inconsistent results and performances from Arsenal has seen a clear split in the fan base with those still backing Arsene Wenger and those suggesting the manager moves on. Finishing in the top four looks the realistic goal for this season in the Premier League, but Arsenal have been given a kind draw in the Champions League and will be expected to move through to the Quarter Final by beating Monaco.

A comfortable win last weekend means Arsenal remain in 6th place in the Premier League, but they are now just 2 points behind the top four teams. The Gunners bring in a 3-2-3 away record from their games in the Premier League where they have scored 12 goals and conceded 10.

Arsenal have won 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions, although their last away game in the Premier League saw the side beaten 3-2 at Stoke City when they were 3-0 down by half time. They did bounce back by crushing Galatasaray 1-4 in Turkey, but Arsenal have lost 2 of their last 3 away games in the Premier League, although interchanged wins and losses in their last 6 on their travels in the League.

Laurent Koscielny, Aaron Ramsey, Jack Wilshire and Mesut Ozil will be missing out for Arsenal. Nacho Monreal, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Tomas Rosicky, Theo Walcott and Mikel Arteta are going to have to pass fitness tests to take part.

Head to Head

Arsenal beat Liverpool twice at home in the Premier League and FA Cup last season, but it was Liverpool who beat the Gunners 5-1 at Anfield in the League.

Liverpool had previously failed to win any of 5 home games against Arsenal before that game and Arsenal had won 3 of 4 visits to Anfield.

Soccer tips

There were definitely some signs that Liverpool were turning a corner in their loss at Manchester United last weekend and they showed better composure in front of goal against Bournemouth during the week. It has been a really tough season for Brendan Rodgers, but beating Arsenal on Sunday will mean Liverpool are very much back in the hunt for the top four places in the Premier League.

However, the other side of the coin suggests a loss would already mean Liverpool have a huge mountain to overcome to get back into the Champions League, through the Premier League at least, and so this is a huge game for them at Anfield.

Raheem Sterling scored twice at Bournemouth in the League Cup, but I don’t think he is completely comfortable leading the line and has to show more composure in this big game if Liverpool are to win. Sterling was guilty of missing two gilt-edged chances against Manchester United last week and I do think he will get chances in this game as Arsenal continue to fight through their defensive problems.

And Liverpool will need to take their chances because Alexis Sanchez, Danny Welbeck, Santi Cazorla and Olivier Giroud pose an attacking threat against a defence that has panicked when put under pressure all season. Dejan Lovren might have to sit out with a knock suffered at Bournemouth and Arsenal will definitely feel they can challenge Brad Jones in goal who doesn’t look an effective replacement for Simon Mignolet.

Both teams are likely to be more comfortable with the ball in possession and moving forward as neither defence has looked capable of securing too many clean sheets. Liverpool have conceded just one goal in their last 3 at Anfield, but Stoke City, Sunderland and Basel don’t have the same attacking threat as Arsenal.

On the other hand, Arsenal have kept just 2 clean sheets in their last 7 away games in all competitions and will be missing Laurent Koscielny in this one. It would be a surprise if both Liverpool and Arsenal don’t score in this one and the chances that likely will be created at both ends should lead to at least three goals scored in this one.

“You can practice shooting eight hours a day, but if your technique is wrong, then all you become is very good at shooting the wrong way. Get the fundamentals down and the level of everything you do will rise.” – Michael Jordan

Introduction

For over a decade SportsInsights.com has been a leader in the sports information industry and our “How To” articles are designed to help our members to grasp the fundamentals of sports investing. This article will focus on the ins and outs of wagering on the NBA. The seemingly eternal NBA season starts in late October and the Finals occur in early July. The long season provides many opportunities to build your bankroll, but before you can become a sports investor, you must learn how to bet on the NBA. This article discusses the different wager types the NBA has to offer, including: Spread, Moneyline, Parlay/Teaser, 1st Quarter/1st Half, Halftime, and Futures.

Spread

Any fan of the NBA will tell you that games can become high scoring affairs as teams are only given 24 seconds on every possession to score. Due to these high scores, bookmakers use a spread, or line, to equalize the chances of either team winning a wager. It is not uncommon to see 15+ point spreads, something that is rarity in the NFL.

The example above demonstrates the opening line for a regular season match-up between the Celtics and Knicks. The -2 indicates that the Celtics are the favorite, despite the Knicks playing at home. The ‘-110’ next to the line is what’s known as the vig, or juice, which is simply a fee the sportsbooks charge to use their service. A bet of $110 on Boston would improve your bankroll $100 as the team covered easily by 8 points. A ‘+’ symbol always indicates an underdog, whereas a ‘-‘ always indicates a favorite. A two-year study on NBA point spreads concluded that games fall within .5 points of the spread 5.5% of the time, which is why shopping for the best line is crucial to the smart sports investor.

Moneyline

The Moneyline is a type of wager that provides different odds based simply on who will win. The Moneyline (ML) odds can be drastic when the powerhouses of the NBA face-off against the lower level teams who are struggling to stay above .500.

The example above shows drastic moneyline odds, indicating that the Spurs are the big favorites in this contest. In fact, one would have to lay $850 on the Spurs to collect a mere $100 in profit. On the other hand, a wager of $100 on the Warriors would earn the bettor $600 in winnings. The Moneyline and point spread are not necessarily released simultaneously.

The 2014/2015 UEFA Champions League is halfway through the group stage and it is time to review the tournament to date. Are there any major surprises? What team is most likely to win the entire tournament? To find out the answers, simodds.com has simulated the tournament a few hundred thousand times.

The Champions League is an interesting, and complex, tournament. It starts with four qualification rounds of double matches, followed by a round robin group stage of six matches, and ends with a single elimination tournament composed of double matches. It is immediately clear that the Champions League will attenuate the poor teams more effectively than the World Cup, for example. Six group matches will cause fewer major surprises. Double matches instead of single matches during elimination is a further headwind for weaker teams.

The seeding for the tournament also favors the strongest teams, which is perhaps why UEFA has decided to change the seeding methodology for next season. The simulations use the ELO ratings found on http://clubelo.com. A description of the simulations can be found at http://simodds.com/Home/About. These simulations were run with ELO ratings for all clubs before the results of matches on 11/1/2014 were known.

So, enough introduction. What are the results?

The entire tournament, including the irritating qualification rounds, were simulated before the tournament began. At that time the top five teams most likely to win the tournament were:

Bayern Munich – 30.4%
Real Madrid – 28.6%
Barcelona – 17.8%
Atletico Madrid – 5.8%
Manchester City – 5.0%

Although rated, at the time, as slightly weaker than Real Madrid, Bayern won a greater percentage in part because the final is in Germany, thus providing a slight home field advantage to Bayern. Perhaps most interesting is the clear top three in this early simulation.

Taking into consideration the most recent results and ratings, the 5 teams with the best chance of winning the UEFA Champions League are:

1. Real Madrid 34%

2. Bayern Munich 31%

3. Barcelona 19%

4. Atletico Madrid 6%

5. Chelsea 5%

The Martingale is one of the oldest betting systems around. Here’s how it works: You make your standard bet, say $5, on an even-money bet, such as red in roulette or the Pass Line in craps. Every time you win you make the same bet for the next hand. But if you lose, you double your bet for the next hand. When you eventually have a winning hand after a series of losing hands, your net win will be $5. In fact, every time you win a bet, you’ll be up another $5, regardless of past losses.

Here’s an example: You bet $5. You win, so you bet $5 again. Then you lose, so you bet $10. You lose again, so you bet $20. You lose again, so you bet $40. You lose again, so you bet $80. Man, it’s not your night! Then you win. Your net win on that series was $5, and since you won $5 before your losing streak, now you’re ahead a total of $10.

If you could always double your bet when you lose you’d be guaranteed to always come out ahead. But in real life you can’t always double your bet. First of all, you’ll run out of money at some point and be unable to double your bet. If you start with $5 and lose thirteen bets in a row (it happens), you’ll have to cough up $40,960 for your next bet. Ouch.

Bet even if you had that much money, you couldn’t bet it anyway, since most casinos limit maximum bets to $500-1000 on a $5 table. And usually, the higher the maximum on a table, the higher the minimum, too.

So that’s the risk of the Martingale: If you lose enough times in a row, you’ll go broke and not have enough money to make the next bet, or you’ll bump up against the table limit. So while the Martingale can work in the short term, the longer you play, the more likely you are to have a long losing streak during which you couldn’t double your bets high enough. How short is short enough? Well, the shorter the better, but an hour is about right. You can certainly play for longer, but the longer you play, the more likely you are to lose.

I get asked a lot about Money Management in gambling. It is not a topic I address often, because money management is just mathematical voodoo. What you can expect to lose gambling is the product of the total amount you bet and the house edge. It does not make any difference how you break up your total amount bet. Given the same game, the expected loss is the same making a million bets of $1 and one bet of $1,000,000.

While money management does not change expected loss, given the same game and total amount bet, it can affect variance. Here are some money management strategies, according to what your goal is.

Player 1 plays for the social aspect of gambling, not so much to win. He prefers to bet conservatively, minimizing his risk of losing, while at the lost of likely not winning either. This player should flat bet. In other words, his wagers should be the same every bet, or close to it.

Player 2 is a risk seeker who wishes to either win a lot or lose a little. Of course, with a high winning marker, and low losing marker, it is more likely to achieve the losing one. The appropriate strategy for player 2 is to press his luck after wins, letting them ride. Most of the time the player will hit a loss before reaching his winning goal, but sometimes hit a good run and parlay his wins to whatever makes him happy.

Player 3 is a small win seeker, at the expense of the chance of a large loss. There are many betting systems that cater to this goal, but they all press bets after losing, until there is a win. Often this player will leave the casino happy for reaching his modest winning goal, but the occasional large losses will take back all the small wins, and more.

Judging by the ratio of expected loss to total amount bet, all betting strategies and money management systems are equally worthless. How much you bet and why should depend on the reason you are playing in the first place. Whatever form of money management you choose, once a bet is made you should always follow the best mathematical play. Finally, never pay for a betting strategy. As mentioned, they are all equally worthless, so you may as well use one of the free ones easily found on the Internet.

Progressive betting systems aren’t the most glamorous form of soccer betting, but some people claim they can make big profits. We investigated the Fibonacci betting system to see whether the returns were worth the risks.

The essence of the Fibonacci Strategy for soccer betting – published in 2007 by Fragiskos Archontakis and Evan Osborne – is simple: bet on a draw, and if you lose, bet on another one. Repeat this process until you win. There are only two additional – and vital – rules to follow:

Only bet on draws when the probability is above 2.618
Increase your betting stake in a way that follows the Fibonacci sequence: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 etc.

The idea is based upon a theory from 1989 that the draw is the most difficult for bookmakers to predict, and therefore can be exploited. The idea is that as long as you continually increase your stake, any win will overcome your previous losses.

The Fibonacci Strategy in practice

Looking at data from the 2011/12 Premier League, there were 93 draws in 380 games – therefore 24.5% of all games ended in a tie. Interestingly, the odds for a potential draw in all 380 ties were above the 2.618 threshold suggested as the lower limit by Archontakis and Osborne.

This means there should be – on average – a payout every four games. This means the winning stake would be the fourth Fibonacci number: 3, with a total bet each time £7 (the winning stake added to the failing three stakes before it: 1, 1, and 2). Considering the average odds for a draw over the season were 4.203, this means that the average winnings would be £12.61 (£3 stake multiplied by the odds), with a profit of £5.61 when the stakes have been subtracted.

Over 380 games, this equates to a theoretical profit of £1786.7 – all from an initial stake of just £1.

Fibonacci Strategy Drawbacks

There are numerous practical limitations that prevent the Fibonacci sequence from printing money. For a start, many games are played concurrently, meaning there’s no option to increase your stake to the next Fibonacci number if a draw doesn’t occur, as the games will finish at the same time. Instead, bettors might consider applying a Fibonacci betting sequence to individual teams.

However, this method means that long streaks without draws could cause huge holes in bettors’ bank balances. Looking at the longest Premier League streak without a draw (Manchester United in 2008/09), the Red Devils went 20 games without drawing, before finally succumbing to a 0-0 tie with Arsenal.

Because the Fibonacci sequence increases exponentially, bettors would have to have bet £10,946 on that final game to follow the sequence. Including that bet, anyone following the betting system would had to have staked £28,656 – a huge amount for a system that usually provides winnings of just £21.02. Interestingly, the odds for a draw on that game were 4.10 however, which would have provided winnings of £44,878.60, or a profit of £16.222.60. With Fibonacci, the increased stakes also provide impressive returns.

An often-used strategy in betting on football matches is to bet on the draw as a final result in a match. The reason for the popularity of this betting method is quite clear and it is that for the draws the betting houses offer usually pretty high odds, often above 3.2.

Besides, it is not so difficult to find suitable matches to bet on draws.

However, what I am going to focus on in the next lines is a covering betting strategy when we decide to bet on draws. It is to bet on a match where we see a possible draw, but to bet on even number of goals in the match. The logic is clear, if the match ends with a draw, it certainly will be a winning bet because the goals will be an even number.

However, if one of the teams won the match with two goals it will be winning again because the match would end again with an even number of goals. When we talk about this way of betting it is important to know that when a match finishes 0-0, the bookmakers once again recognize it as an even number of goals and so our bet would be winning.
However, the main question is will this system bring more money than the usual way of betting on draws? Every player should check it individually by having a look on his stats.

Usually, bookmakers offer odds about 1.9 or 1.95 for an even number of goals in the match, which is more than fine as it offers a good return of made bets.

The bad thing when we talk about this betting system is that if you bet on a draw in a match where we have two teams for which we have assumed they are with equal strength the match usually ends with a draw or just one goal margin for one of the teams.

Therefore, you should carefully check whether your personal results would fetch on this type of betting.

Of course, the opposite is also true in many cases. You can try a strategy in which to bet on draws, covered by a bet for an odd number of goals scored in the match. By doing this you guarantee profits in cases where the match ended in a draw or with one goal in favour of either of the two teams.

The Italy Serie A football match between SSC Napoli (7th) and Parma (20th) kicks off on 18 December 2014.

SSC Napoli has played 7 Italy Serie A matches this season on Stadio San Paolo. On home ground SSC Napoli has won 3, drawn 3 and lost 1 matches. This ranks the Azzuri 8th in home team performance in the Italy Serie A.

Parma has played 7 Italy Serie A matches this season away from home. On away ground Parma has won 1, drawn 0 and lost 6 matches. This ranks FC Parma 19th in away team performance in the Italy Serie A.
Analyzing the value of max odds in the market

WOSB.com has rated each bet on a scale from 1-10, where 10 indicates highest value in the odds. The rating is based on results and statistics for the two teams in reflection to the odds:

When looking at SSC Napoli home performance in league points, SSC Napoli’s performance is greatest when looking at opponents in the top 6 with an average of 3 points per game.

Against opponent such as Parma that is currently placed in the bottom 6 of the Italy Serie A SSC Napoli has managed to collect an average of 1.63 points in 8 matches this season. Concerning matches played at home against the bottom 6 this season SSC Napoli has collected 1.6 points on average in 5 matches.

When looking at Parma away performance in league points, Parma’s performance is greatest when looking at opponents in the bottom 6 with an average of 0.75 points per game.

Against opponent such as SSC Napoli who is currently placed in the mid 8 of the Italy Serie A Parma has managed to collect an average of 0 points in 2 matches this season. When looking at matches played away against the mid 8 this season Parma has collected 0 points on average in 2 matches.

QPR head up to Old Trafford on Sunday, being the first side to face up to United’s new signing Radamel Falcao in the Premier League.

Kick-off time: Sunday 16:00

Given how QPR lost their only other away game so far this season in the top flight 4-0 at White Hart Lane, they will be cursing their luck about potentially having to deal with Falcao, Rooney and Robin van Persie. So Harry Redknapp’s R’s could have a bit of a thankless task on their hands on Sunday, and there is nothing in the stats to back them up in taking even a surprise point off the Red Devils.

QPR have not managed a clean sheet against United since back in 1992, which was a 0-0 in their first ever Premier League game at Old Trafford. In total, they have been to Old Trafford 21 times for league matches and the R’s have come away with just the one win (D3 L17). Frankly a terrible record and with them having only scored one goal all season (in all competitions), albeit a winner from Charlie Austin against Sunderland last time out, they aren’t likely to get anything out of this game.

Despite the bulk of Manchester United’s problems this season being at the back and in midfield, Louis van Gaal tried to cover it all up by bringing in one of Europe’s most prolific strikers. The Colombian has scored 104 goals in 139 appearances in European club football since 2009/10. But with Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie around, Van Gaal has tried to fix the one area of the United squad that wasn’t broken. Still, Falcao is an immediate 4/6 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, shorter priced than both RVP and Rooney.

Manchester United have kept clean sheets in four of their last five games against QPR (in all competitions) so it is probably worth looking at the bigger value of 10/11 on them to win to nil. That should still be a banker given QPR’s lack of prowess in front of goal. Incidentally, QPR have had just two fewer shots at goal than Chelsea have this season, but the R’s have scored ten fewer goals than Mourinho’s men. As bad as United’s defence has been this season, there’s better value in backing them to win with a clean sheet than the ridiculous odds-on price of them in the match outright (1/4).

With United winning ten and losing none of their 12 previous Premier League matches against QPR, they are to be backed in this one to turn the corner for their season. If not defensively, they surely have the attack quality now, with Angel Di Maria there, lets not forget too, to pick up three points in this one. Frankly, if they lose this one, Van Gaal may need to start looking for a new job.

After 2-2 draw in Paris, in the second leg Barca and PSG will continue tonight their battle and try to reach semi-final of Champions League.

In the last Primera match, Barca humiliated Mallorca 5:0 despite the fact that they have played with mixed team. In that game, Cesc Fabregas replaced Messi and taken hat-trick, while Alexis Sanchez scored twice.

Barca play superb in Champions League. They are unbeaten in their last 20 matches.

For today’s match Lionel Messi is doubtful, but in the last match Barca showed that can play very good without him.

For this match out will be Adriano, Puyol (injury) and Mascherano (suspension).
Paris Saint-Germain continue their solid form by beating Rennes in Ligue 1.

PSG captain Thiago Silva missed the weekend win at Rennes and he is doubtful for this match, while midfielder Matuidi is suspended.

Barcelona are not a one-man team, so with or without Messi, they have more quality players and enough strength to win tonight.

Barcelona – PSG (-1.5)
Tip: AH 1
Odds: 2.05